2021 NFL Season Predictions
NFC North
Green Bay Packers (2) - 10 wins O/U - Over
Minnesota Vikings - 8.5 wins O/U - Under
Chicago Bears - 7.5 wins O/U - Under
Detroit Lions - 4.5 wins O/U - Under
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (4) - 9 wins O/U - Over
Washington Football - 8.5 wins O/U - Over
Philadelphia Eagles - 6.5 wins O/U - Over
NY Giants - 7 wins O/U - Under
NFC West
LA Rams (2) - 10.5 wins O/U - Over
San Francisco Niners (5) - 10.5 wins O/U - Under
Seattle Seahawks (6) - 10 wins O/U - Push
Arizona Cardinals - 8.5 wins O/U - Under
NFC South
Tampa Bay Bucs (1) - 12 wins O/U - Over
New Orleans Saints - 9 wins O/U - Push
Carolina Panthers - 7.5 wins O/U - Over
Atlanta Falcons - 7.5 wins O/U - Under
Wildcard Spots: Niners, Seahawks, Saints
AFC North
Cleveland Browns (2) - 10.5 wins O/U - Over
Pittsburgh Steelers (6) - 8.5 wins O/U - Over
Baltimore Ravens - 11 wins O/U - Under
Cincy Bengals - 6.5 wins O/U - Under
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (4) - 11 wins O/U - Push
NE Pats - 9.5 wins O/U - Over
Miami Dolphins - 9.5 wins O/U - Over
NY Jets - 6 wins O/U - Push
AFC West
KC Chiefs (1) - 12.5 wins O/U - Over
Los Angeles Chargers (5) - 9.5 wins O/U - Over
Denver Broncos (7) - 8.5 wins O/U - Over
Las Vegas Raiders - 7 wins O/U - Under
AFC South
Tennessee Titans (3) - 9 wins O/U - Over
Indy Colts - 9 wins O/U - Push
Jacksonville Jags - 6.5 wins O/U - Under
Houston Texans - 4 wins O/U - Under
Wildcard Spots: Chargers, Broncos, Steelers
Analysis
AFC North
I’m picking the Cleveland Browns to finally break through and win the AFC North for the first time since 1989. Adding to the success of last season’s playoff victory and coach of the year award for Kevin Stefanski, I expect the Browns to be even better than last season. The Browns will win 12 games, followed by the Steelers surprising expectations winning 10 games and finishing 2nd in the division.
The Baltimore Ravens win total of 11 is the one I have the most disagreement with. Something feels off about that team, lots of shuffling on the offensive line (3 new starters), some personnel losses on the defensive end (losing Judon and Ngakoue) and the inability of Baltimore front office to obtain a #1 wide receiver for Lamar will continue to hurt this team. Losing JK Dobbins and Justice Hill before the season starts compromises the run attack that much more.
Cincinnati choosing to draft Jamar Chase over Penei Sewell in the first round is a mistake they will regret as Joe Burrow continues to recover from his horrific knee injury that ended his rookie season after only 9 games. I have the Bengals being unable to protect and develop Burrow, firing Zac Taylor and drafting in the top-5 next season.
AFC East
I’m picking the Buffalo Bills to repeat as AFC East champions, but to regress slightly from last season’s win total of 13 down to 11 wins. The upgraded rosters of the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots will make it difficult for Buffalo to repeat the success they had last season. I expect the Jets to improve as well, making this a much more improved division than last season.
The QB situations in Miami and New England will be fascinating to watch, with both teams moving forward with young and unproven signal-callers. While there are a ton of questions about what we have and haven’t seen from Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, I’m more interested in what we will see from Mac Jones and the Patriots. I have both teams winning double-digit games, but neither making the playoffs due to tiebreakers.
The Jets decision to hire Robert Salah was one I was in favor of, however with that being said, I was not in favor of them choosing Zach Wilson with the #2 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Passing on Trey Lance and Justin Fields seems like a foolish decision. I have them bouncing back from their dreadful performance last season to winning 6 games this year.
AFC West
There is little surprise to me picking the Kansas City Chiefs to win this division as they are heavy favorites to repeat as AFC West champs. Winning the division again makes it the sixth division title in a row for Andy Reid and company. I have the Chiefs winning 13 games and being the top seed in the AFC playoffs again.
The surprise I have is picking both the Los Angeles Chargers AND the Denver Broncos to make the playoffs as wild cards. I would consider this division the most difficult in the AFC. I love the additions the Chargers have made to their coaching staff (hiring Brandon Stale and Joe Lombardi) along with upgrading their offensive line (signing Corey Linsley and drafting Rashawn Slater). I’m predicting the Chargers to win 12 games and be the breakout team in the AFC.
On the other end of the spectrum, as amazing as the additions are the Chargers have made to the offensive side of the ball, the Broncos have made just as many to the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos have assembled the defensive talent to end the season with a top-3 defense in the league. Adding Kyle Fuller in free agency and drafting Patrick Surtain II will help a good defense become a great defense. I’m picking Denver to win between 10-11 games and getting the last playoff spot.
AFC South
After being proven wrong for two straight seasons about Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans, I am finally convinced this team is a legit contender. Although they lost Arthur Smith who’s scheme and play-calling helped Tannehill and co. maximize their potential, the addition of Julio Jones prevents this offense from any setbacks in the passing game. The defense makes it difficult for this team to continue to have success, but getting to play the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars for four games helps nudge this team to 10 wins.
The Indianapolis Colts have built a great roster and Chris Ballard remains one of the top general managers in the league, however they haven’t been able to replace Andrew Luck after his surprising retirement 2 years ago. The inability to find or develop a QB has led this team to take the risk of acquiring Carson Wentz. Wentz was available after a disappointing season in Philadelphia that contributed to him losing the starting job and Doug Pedersen losing his coaching job. Perhaps, I’m too low on this move and the Colts and Wentz will return to the playoffs. I’m not counting on it however, I have them just missing the playoffs at 9 wins.
There isn’t much to say about the Houston Texans as they’re trying to navigate the messy Deshaun Watson situation and don’t seem too invested in winning this season as they just named Tyrod Taylor the starter. As you can see below, I have them as the worst team in the league being rewarded with the #1 pick and hopefully finding a solution to the Deshaun Watson situation. The rebuilding situation in Jacksonville with new head coach Urban Meyer along with hyped up #1 pick Trevor Lawrence is going to be fascinating to watch. Most college coaches don’t transition to the NFL well, however they’re not usually paired with a generational QB prospect. I have them winning 6 games as Meyer and Lawrence get used to losing games.
NFC North
Despite all the “problems” between Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers organization, I’m still picking them to win this division again. While Rodgers may not win another MVP, the Packers seem to be head and shoulders better than the rest of this division. The Packers problems have usually been on the defensive side of the ball, replacing Kevin King should help.
I have the Vikings just missing the playoffs again, due to the inability of Kirk Cousins to consistently perform at a high level. This will be the last season Kirk Cousins plays for the Vikings. The Bears are moving toward the Justin Fields era and just need to make sure he doesn’t take too many hits behind their atrocious offensive line.
The Detroit Lions seem like a team unknowingly or knowingly in tank mode, looking to scout future QB’s by watching college football on Saturdays. The Dan Campbell experience is going to take a while to evaluate, while I like the staff he assembled, the jury is out on executing a turnaround of this nature by the Lions. They do have 2 first round picks in 2022, thanks to the Matt Stafford-Jared Goff swap, perhaps they’re able to find their future signal caller in next year’s draft.
NFC East
I should know this division the best due to my Dallas Cowboys fandom, however it also creates a bias against the division rivals. While this division was historically bad last season, with Washington winning it at 7-9 I’m hoping for a bounce back season from the entire division. I’m picking the Cowboys to win this division solely because of Dak Prescott. I haven’t seen anything from Daniel Jones or Jalen Hurts to convince me they will be anything other than backups in the league.
Washington had a very impressive defense last season, but the wins they had were over very bad quarterbacks and bad teams. Carson Wentz, Nate Sudfield, Andy Dalton, Joe Burrow and Ben Roethlisberger all ranked in the bottom tier of the majority of passing stats. If anything, I think the Giants may end up having the best defense in the division this season. Adding Adoree’ Jackson in free agency, along with the return of Xavier McKinney should improve their secondary greatly.
Every team in this division spent money upgrading their team in free agency and had high draft selections. While I’m not convinced in Daniel Jones or Jalen Hurts, I believe both of those teams should improve over last season along with Dallas. The strategy of signing a journeyman quarterback like Ryan Fitzpatrick is an interesting one. He has never been a consistent starter in the league, his performance is very streaky and usually doesn’t hold up past 4 or 5 games. Prescott will be the only QB that is starting for his current team in 2022 out of this division.
NFC West
The best division in football makes predicting a winner very difficult, I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if San Francisco, Seattle or Los Angeles won it. I have all 3 teams in the playoffs, although I do think Seattle takes a step back this season, due to the rest of the division’s improvement. Even though I’m not a fan of the play calls and offense Kliff Kingsbury runs, Arizona is a decent team and a tough division opponent.
The addition of Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams replacing Jared Goff is a major upgrade in my eyes. The ability for Sean McVay to dial up passing plays with longer routes in the deep and intermediate passing game should make it much more difficult to defend them. While San Francisco deals with the QB transition of moving from Jimmy Garroppolo to Trey Lance, I think they will be better. I just believe they will lose a game they shouldn’t, due to that switch, handing the division to the Rams again.
Arizona made some intriguing moves in free agency, most notably adding JJ Watt and AJ Green. While both players were former All-Pro’s at their position, they are no longer elite performers. Adding Zaven Collins in the draft should also help the defense, however they released Patrick Peterson and the recent retirement of Malcom Butler leaves only Budda Baker as a reliable playmaker in the secondary. I have Arizona moving on from Kingsbury before the season ends.
NFC South
Picking any other team besides Tampa Bay after their incredible Super Bowl run is a fool’s errand. Tom Brady has brought his winning ways to Tampa and the organization has bought in. After they did the impossible, making Patrick Mahomes look ordinary in defeat, the team returns all 22 starters from last season’s championship run.
With the departure of Drew Brees and the arrival of Jameis Winston as the starter the Saints remain intriguing but will take a step back after losing a Hall of Famer like Brees. They will be a competitive and scrappy team thanks to Sean Payton’s offensive scheme along with Alvin Kamara, but are not a serious championship contender. I have them sneaking into the playoffs, taking the last wild card spot but are a borderline playoff team at best.
The Panthers acquisition of Sam Darnold is very interesting, as Darnold was a highly regarded prospect coming out of USC and being a top-3 selection in the 2017 draft. He never performed up to his high draft status, however he was buoyed by the worst coach and offensive mind in the league, Adam Gase. The gamble of Darnold performing better in a different offense along with a much better offensive mind and coordinator, Joe Brady is a calculated one. We will see if passing on Justin Fields along with Rashawn Slater, for cornerback Jaycee Horn, was a misstep in the first round. The team will be better this season, but I still think they move Darnold in the offseason and look for a different QB.
Leaving us with the Falcons, and the inevitable last season of Matt Ryan’s career in Atlanta. Passing on multiple quarterbacks for Kyle Pitts in the first round as a replacement for Julio Jones doesn’t do much to improve this team. I’m not too sure what new coach Arthur Smith’s plan is for the defense because, the Falcons defense was a major issue last season, and it doesn’t appear they’ve addressed that side of the ball.
NFL Conference and Super Bowl Predictions
#1 Draft Pick: Houston Texans
AFC Champion: Kansas City Chiefs +200 odds (favorite)
NFC Champion: Los Angeles Rams +350 odds
Super Bowl Winner: Kansas City Chiefs +200 odds (favorite)
NFL Player Award Predictions
Most Valuable Player: Tom Brady +1400 odds
Offensive Player of the Year: Nick Chubb +2000 odds
Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett +550 odds
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Trevor Lawrence +350 odds
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons +600 odds
Comeback Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey +850 odds
Coach of the Year: Sean Payton +2500 odds
All odds courtesy MGM Sportsbook
