NFL Super Bowl LVIII Best Bets
Christian McCaffrey to score a
1H TD +130 @ CZR
CMC is the engine of the 49ers offense and also unlocks the passing game. His ability to run routes like a receiver really allows Shanahan to put defenses in a pinch. The odds on an anytime touchdown for CMC are around -250, but I was shopping around and found this prop.
I expect Shanahan to go to CMC early and often and the opportunity to get plus money odds on a bet that feels like a sure thing was too difficult to pass up. I’m betting 2 units on CMC to score a first half TD.
CMC 1H TD (+130) 2 Units
George Kittle and Travis Kelce
to score a TD +375 @ DK
The prop market is where the value is at during the Super Bowl. There are so many bets and so much action in the game that it’s difficult to find a lot of value in the standard spread or total bets. This was a fun one for me that was a free bet from DraftKings.
I love this TE TD parlay; I expect Kelce to get many targets and opportunities to score in the RZ, and George Kittle has been a fantastic safety blanket for Purdy. He’s been able to generate tons of YAC when given the shot.
George Kittle & Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+375) 2 Units @ DK
Chiefs +8.5 & Under 53.5 Points
6-Point Teaser @ BetMGM
This was a boosted teaser from MGM. I took advantage of the 6 points and added it to the Chiefs spread because this feels like the safest play. If the Chiefs do lose, I don’t believe they lose by more than a TD.
I’m also adding the points to the total because both teams have pretty good defenses, and I expect a much lower-scoring game than the public. I can also cash this wager if the Chiefs win this game, so this felt like a smart play.
Chiefs +8.5 & U 53.5 (+143) 1 Unit @ BetMGM
SF/KC Second Half
Under 23.5 Points @ DK
This bet is based on what I’ve seen from the Chiefs all season. They tend to struggle to score in the second half. They haven’t exceeded their second-half total in most games.
The enduring trend persists, with 18 out of 20 Kansas City Chiefs games this season seeing the second-half total going under! Remarkably, these games have averaged a mere 14.4 second-half points.
Continuing its dominance, the trend has maintained a perfect 3-0 record in the playoffs, attributed to the Chiefs' defense allowing a mere 10 total second-half points against the Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens.
With the second-half total set at 23.5 for this upcoming game, I’m betting under 23.5 points at -105 odds.
2H U 23.5 (-105) 2 Units @ DK
Kansas City Chiefs
Moneyline @ BetOpenly
This is a boring pick, believe me. I thought about picking the 49ers, I picked the Ravens, but I’m being realistic. As much as everyone would like to dissect QB play, we are witnessing an all-time great at the position. Ask yourself how long it has been since you’ve watched a game where Mahomes wasn’t the best QB.
He hasn’t had any turnovers in the playoffs and hasn’t had a turnover-worthy play in the playoffs. He’s an assassin who won his first two road playoff games at Buffalo and Baltimore. The Chiefs have an awesome defense, and the Niners have a great offense, but in these games, it comes down to a play here or there.
I’m betting on Mahomes to make those plays. I think Brock Purdy has proven himself and is a good QB; however, to beat Patrick Mahomes, you have to be great. Ask Jalen Hurts. Ask Josh Allen.
Tom Brady is the only QB who knows how to defeat Mahomes in the playoffs with regularity. Brady has retired and handed the dynasty crown to Mahomes and the Chiefs.
I can’t pick against this team. He’s too good of a QB, he solves every defense and makes all the winning plays. I’ll take the Chiefs on the moneyline in this one.
KC Chiefs Moneyline (+122) 2.5 Units @ BetOpenly
2023 Year-to-date record
44-34-1, +27.6 U
