NFL Divisional Round Best Bets
Jaguars at Chiefs
The Chiefs are ripe for an upset. They haven’t really played any good teams of late while the Jags have all this momentum from their 27-point comeback. We haven’t really seen any wild upsets in the playoffs yet and I think we’re due for one here. The Jags have a very young and athletic pass rush that will get after Mahomes.
Lawrence continues to improve with every game. I believe they can keep it close with the Chiefs and the Jags can make a few more plays at the end of the game to steal this one. I love the angle of Doug Pederson going against his former mentor in Andy Reid. It just adds another layer to this great playoff matchup. I’m taking the Jags and the points and even sprinkling a little on Jags moneyline as well.
Jags +9.5 (-110) 2.5 Units and Jags ML 1 Unit
Giants at Eagles
This line felt like a trap. When this line opened at Giants +8 and then dropped to Giants +7.5 I knew it was just bait for the public. I wanted to bet the Giants too, that’s how I know it was a good line by the sportsbooks, but that it was also a trap. Because it felt so funny, I started doing some additional research on the matchup.
The Eagles are so much better than the Giants it’s not even close. The public is suffering from some recency bias due to the close matchup the Eagles and Giants had to end the season. The Eagles were not trying very hard and the Giants had their third string in for the game. The public and the media are too enamored with the New York Giants underdog storyline to actually evaluate them fairly. They do not have a very good roster and they have overachieved most of the season, the Eagles have been the best team in football all season. For this reason I’m taking the Eagles and laying the 7.5 points.
Eagles -7.5 (-110) 2.5 Units
Bengals at Bills
The Bengals and Burrow are not getting enough respect in this one. I have no idea on how this line opened up at like 3.5 and has only gone up all week. The Bills are getting too much love and fanfare. They are a good team and they did have the entire Damar Hamlin situation happen but they are not this much better than the Bengals.
The Bengals haven’t lost a game in 2 months and were leading the Bills in a MNF game 6 weeks ago. Joe Burrow and the Bengals seem to be rolling right now and despite this weird underdog point spread I’m backing Burrow and the Bengals. If the Bills were to win this game, they don’t win it by more than a FG, so I’ll take the 6 points along with the better QB.
Bengals +6 (-110) 2.5 Units
Cowboys at Niners
The Cowboys and Niners have such a good playoff rivalry that it instantly bring up memories of 90’s nostalgia. The Niners have beaten the Cowboys the last few times they have faced each other including last year’s playoff matchup. I know the Cowboys will be looking for revenge in this matchup even if it is across country in Santa Clara.
Dak Prescott is coming off of his best game as a QB and is facing the best defense in football. It will be a very difficult test, but they should be able to move the ball and score with ease since they’ve seen the Niners defense before. The Cowboys defense should be able to limit the Niners skill players and put most of the playmaking responsibility on Brock Purdy’s shoulders. That should be an advantage for the Cowboys, 4 points is above a FG, so I’ll take the points and my Cowboys all day.
Cowboys +4 (-110) 2.5 Units
