October 22 CFB Best Bets
#20 Texas at #11 Oklahoma State
Texas is a different team with Quinn Ewers at QB. He is one of the most impressive players I’ve seen play QB this season. He has only played in 3 1/2 games this season, and has more touchdown passes than 54 other FBS quarterbacks.
Texas as a road favorite, usually is a red flag and I would normally stay away, but Ewers and Bijan Robinson are too talented. This game feels like a 7 point win for Texas.
Texas lost by 1 point to Bama after Ewers got knocked out and lost in double OT to Texas Tech with their backup QB in. This version of the Longhorns is one of the best teams in the country and will be a nightmare to face during bowl season.
I watched Spencer Sanders and that Oklahoma State offense last week against TCU. While they are talented and should be able to match the offensive output of Texas, I’m worried about Sanders health. I haven’t been able to get clarity on how healthy Sanders is, along with the Cowboys riding a home winning streak (13 games) everything points to a let down spot for them.
Texas -6 points (-110) 2.5 Units
#9 UCLA at #10 Oregon
The Bruins are averaging 41.5 points per game so far this season and QB, Dorian Thompson-Robinson has flourished. He has 19 TD’s passing and just 2 picks. The Bruins are coming off back to back wins over ranked opponents Washington on the road and Utah at home. UCLA were underdogs in both those games and won outright.
Oregon looks like a completely different team after getting steamrolled by Georgia in their opening game (49-3). Bo Nix and the offense have been rolling winning five straight averaging about 49 points a game.
These are the only 2 unbeaten teams left in the Pac-12. The winner of this game should be a lock for one of the 2 spots for the Pac-12 conference title game in December. The amount of money on UCLA to not only cover but to win as a road team is shocking to me. It’s north of 70% on both, those type of handle and bet percentages make me want to fade the Bruins.
But today is Chip Kelly’s revenge match, the Bruins cover this spread of 7 points, which feels like way too much. With an extra week to prepare the Bruins cover this one.
UCLA +7 (-110) 2.5 Units
#17 Kansas State at #8 TCU
This TCU team could very well win the Big 12 and make the CFP playoff if they keep it up. They came back from 14 down last week to beat Ok St. Cowboys in double OT. They have resilience, they have grit, they have defeated 3 straight ranked opponents. This one is going to be 4 in a row.
Max Duggan and this TCU offense are unstoppable, they put up points on anyone (averaging 45.8 points per game and 526.7 total yards of offense, both rank third in the nation)
Kansas State has a good defense and should provide a tough test for the TCU offense, but I just don’t believe in this Kansas State offense. I’ve seen the stats from QB Adrian Martinez and I doubt he can go on the road and win this game in a tough environment in prime time. I don’t like the point spread on this one, so I’m just sticking with TCU moneyline.
TCU ML (-170) 2.5 Units
