October 23 NFL Best Bets
Giants at Jags
This is a very interesting game to me because the Giants despite having the better record are underdogs (+3) at most books. The public is hammering the Giants believing in this Daniel Jones led team grabbing the points. I had to take a closer look to see why this underdog was receiving all this money. The Giants are 5-1, but they have a very suspect passing attack. Most would not be able to name their wideouts.
The Jags are being overlooked due to the disparity in the records between the two teams. These teams seem a lot more evenly matched than what the handle percentage indicates. It’s around 63% right now, which seems like way too much money on the Giants. This should be a toss up game and the fact the Jags are home underdogs has me leaning toward them.
The Jags have a solid defense that is improving weekly along with a young QB who is also improving weekly. Give me the better QB and home underdog in this one.
Jags Moneyline (-165) 2.5 Units
Chiefs at Niners
My upset pick of the weekend is Niners over Chiefs. Maybe I’m still salty the Chiefs lost me my max play last weekend. I promise I’m not blinded by the Christian McCaffrey trade, but it definitely helps. My reasoning for picking against the Chiefs is this feels like a letdown spot for them after the highly emotional Bills game.
The Niners lost last weekend as well, but they also have a top-3 defense. The Bills posed some problems for the Chiefs with their pass rush, I feel like the Niners will be able to replicate those issues. The Niners run game will keep the ball out of Mahomes hands, the Niners are at home, this has all the makings for an upset. Home underdog as well, nearly 80% of the public backing the Chiefs on the road.
Give me the Niners, and as a bonus play I’m going to bet on McCaffrey to score a TD today!
Niners ML(+100) 2.5 Units
Packers at Commanders
The Packers are in trouble. They keep running the same offense they had when they had all world receiver Davante Adams. Without him they can’t score any points, Aaron Rodgers looks frustrated and checked out and Matt LaFleur is being exposed. The Commanders are not a good team, especially with backup QB Taylor Heinicke under center now. Both of these teams are below average right now, the Packers with all of their struggles should not be road favorites over any team right now.
I’m backing the Commanders to stay in this game and only lose by a FG. They are at home, have a decent run game, but Ron Rivera is such a mediocre coach I don’t feel comfortable backing them on the moneyline. I’ll take the points and the home field in this one.
Commanders +4 (-105) 2 Units
Colts at Titans
The Colts and Titans are difficult teams to evaluate because they’re both streaky squads. Titans started out 0-2 and won 3 straights. I believe the Colts are on a winning streak as well (Broncos and Jags). The Titans are the better team, they have the better coach, they have the better defense and they’ve had a bye week to prepare for them.
I know it’s a divisional matchup but less than a FG (-2.5 points) seems like the right line for this one. Henry and Tannehill at home will be difficult to stop for a Colts team that has had problems staying healthy all season. Darius Leonard is awesome when he plays, however we have yet to see him this season.
The Titans defense has been impressive, especially their defensive line. Vrabel has done a great job with this team and because they’ve had extra time to prepare and get healthy I’m backing the Titans.
Titans -2.5 (-115) 2 Units
